Somehow, some way, the third quarter is nearly over. That means we’re gearing up for a wave of venture capital data that will start to drop in less than two weeks’ time. We’re itching to get our hands on the final numbers because the third quarter of 2022 is a pretty damn important data point.
Why? Because Q1 2022 was replete with deals that got started back in 2021, when venture economics were spitting out very different valuations and deal sizes than we see today. The second quarter was similar, in that it was not a fully decelerated period. (Y Combinator’s Michael Seibel noted in a recent interview that it wasn’t obvious how slow things were going to get until April or May.)
But the third quarter should present us with a picture of the global and regional venture capital markets that has no 2021 overhang and none of the lingering enthusiasm we saw in early Q2. So we have some questions — just like last year.
To help frame our questions, we pulled preliminary data. It doesn’t look good.
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Per a quick and dirty PitchBook query, venture capital activity in the United States is set to slow dramatically in Q3 2022, from $70.8 billion invested in the second quarter across 3,972 deals to what is currently tabulated as $37.87 billion invested in 2,424 deals. Recall that U.S. venture capital activity peaked in Q4 2021, when it was worth some $94.7 billion.